Nigeria’s crude oil production slipped marginally in December 2025, highlighting the fragility of recent output gains, even as global energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie projects a strong rebound above 2 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2026.
Data from the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), contained in its January 2026 Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), showed that Nigeria produced an average of 1.422 million bpd in December, down from 1.436 million bpd in November.
The month-on-month decline of about 14,000 bpd reversed the modest recovery seen earlier and left Nigeria below its OPEC production quota of 1.5 million bpd. Analysts say the shortfall reflects persistent challenges including operational disruptions, ageing infrastructure, deferred investments, and security-related setbacks.
Despite the dip, December output remained broadly in line with Nigeria’s 2025 average. However, the data underscores the difficulty the country faces in sustaining higher production levels on a consistent basis, even with ongoing efforts to stabilise oil infrastructure and restore shut-in fields.
Across Africa, production trends were mixed. Algeria recorded a slight increase to about 972,000 bpd, while Libya’s output rose to approximately 1.371 million bpd, supported by improved security at key oilfields and export terminals. Smaller producers such as Congo and Equatorial Guinea posted modest gains, while Gabon’s output remained largely stable.
Globally, OPEC maintained its outlook that oil demand growth will remain robust, forecasting an increase of 1.34 million bpd in 2027, broadly in line with expected growth in 2026. The cartel also projected near balance between global supply and demand in 2026, pushing back against forecasts of a major oil glut.
Meanwhile, Wood Mackenzie struck an optimistic tone on Sub-Saharan Africa’s upstream outlook, projecting that regional oil and gas output will exceed 6 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2026 for the first time since 2015.
Nigeria is expected to be a key driver of this recovery. According to the consultancy, aggressive drilling programmes by indigenous operators could lift Nigeria’s liquids production to over 2 million bpd in 2026, returning output to levels last seen in 2019.
The report also highlighted Nigeria’s growing appeal to investors, with plans to offer 50 oil and gas blocks as part of an ambitious licensing round. Improved fiscal terms, flexible licensing arrangements, and advances in deepwater drilling technology are helping revive upstream investment interest.
While production growth will also be supported by new start-ups in countries such as Uganda and Angola, Wood Mackenzie positioned Nigeria as the centerpiece of Sub-Saharan Africa’s upstream resurgence heading into 2026
